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How Trump's threats have changed everything about Canada's politics

How Trump's threats have changed everything about Canada's politics

If you had asked Canadians a few months ago who would win the country's next general election, most would have predicted a decisive victory for the Conservative Party.

That outcome does not look so certain now.

In the wake of US President Donald Trump's threats against Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party has surged in the polls, shrinking the double-digit lead their Conservative rivals had held steadily since mid-2023.

The dramatic change in the country's political landscape reflects how Trump's tariffs and his repeated calls to make Canada "the 51st state" have fundamentally altered Canadian voters' priorities.

Trump's rhetoric has "pushed away all of the other issues" that were top of mind for Canadians before his inauguration on 20 January, notes Luc Turgeon, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.

It has even managed to revive the once deeply unpopular Trudeau, whose approval rating has climbed by 12 points since December. The prime minister, of course, will not be in power for much longer, having announced his resignation at the start of the year.

On Sunday, his Liberals will declare the results of the leadership contest to determine who takes over a party running a precarious minority government. The new leader will have two immediate decisions to make: how to respond to Trump's threats, and when to call a general election. The answer to the first dilemma will surely influence the second.

Who is in the running to replace Trudeau as Liberal Party leader?

A federal election must be held on or before 20 October, but could be called as early as this week.

Polls indicate that many Canadians still want a change at the top. But what that change would look like - a Liberal government under new leadership, or a complete shift to the Conservatives - is now anyone's guess, says Greg Lyle, president of the Toronto-based Innovative Research Group, which has been polling Canadians on their shifting attitudes.

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